Round 19 is done and dusted and once again it delivered! With the Origin Stars out of the teams, we saw some young talent really shine. The Bulldogs pulled off a great upset win against the Rabbitohs, while the Dolphins edges the Titans in a nail-biting game. Now onto round 20, where the big question is who backs up from Origin. Stay tuned as we help you find value across all 7 games this week.
NRL 2023 Round 20
Knights vs Tigers
Kicking off the round we have the Tigers hosting the Knights. The Tigers are coming off a disappointing 36-12 loss to the Sharks, while the Knights will be well rested after having the bye. The Tigers were looking like an improving side 6 weeks ago, but after the injuries of Api Koroisau and Luke Brooks they haven’t looked the same, losing 5 in a row. The Knights are only 2-3 in their last 5 games, yet lost to the Roosters, Broncos and Panthers by a combined 14 points and most recently beat the Bulldogs 66-0.
Both sides are relatively unimpacted by Origin, yet the Tigers are still nowhere near full strength and it is really showing. The Knights have looked tremendous since moving Ponga to fullback which is undoubtedly his best position. The line is quite big here, but without Koroisau and Brooks, against a Knights team high on confidence, I have to take the favourites here.
| Bookmaker | Daniel’s Tip | Odds |
 | Knights to win both halves | $1.83 |
 | Knights -14.5 | $1.84 |
 | Halftime/Fulltime Double – Knights/Knights | $1.42 |
Predicted Squads
Knights: 1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Dominic Young 3. Dane Gagai 4. Bradman Best 5. Greg Marzhew 6. Tyson Gamble 7. Jackson Hastings 8. Daniel Saifiti 9. Phoenix Crossland 10. Leo Thompson 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Lachlan Fitzgibbon 13. Adam Elliot 14. Kurt Mann 15. Jacob Saifiti 16. Mat Croker 17. Jack Hetherington
Tigers: 1. Jahream Bula 2. Asu Kepaoa 3. Tommy Talau 4. Starford To’a 5. Junior Tupou 6. Will Smith 7. Brandon Wakeham 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Jake Simpkin 10. David Klemmer 11. Isaiah Papali’I 12. Shawn Blore 13. John Bateman 14. Tallyn Da Silva 15. Aitasi James 16. Fonua Pole 17. Alex Seyfarth
Bulldogs vs Broncos
Kicking off Super Saturday we have the Bulldogs facing the Broncos. The Bulldogs are coming off a 36-32 thrilling win against the Rabbitohs while the Broncos had the bye. These sides sit on opposite sides of the ladder, with the Broncos in 2nd and the Bulldogs in 15th, yet this game should be closer than the ladder suggests. The Bulldogs will be without Ryan Sutton this week but besides that they should be at full strength. The Broncos will be without Walsh, Flegler, Haas, Riki and then still have Carrigan backing up from Origin.
Despite these outs, the Broncos are a strong side and have shown this over the Origin period, winning 4/5 games since the bye period started. The Bulldogs won last week but it was against such an understrength Rabbitohs side, having a completely inexperienced spine. I think the halves pairing of Ezra Mam and Reynolds will prove too much for the Bulldogs shaky defence.
| Bookmaker | Daniel’s Tip | Odds |
| Broncos -6.5 | $1.90 |
| Broncos to win | $1.42 |
| Broncos -3.5 first half | $1.82 |
Predicted Squads
Bulldogs: 1. Hayze Perham 2. Jacob Kiraz 3. Jake Averillo 4. Braidon Burns 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Matt Burton 7. Toby Sexton 8. Max King 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Tevita Pangai Junior 11. Jayden Okunbor 12. Jacob Preston 13. Raymond Faitala-Mariner 14. Harrison Edwards 15. Kurtis Morrin 16. Franklin Pele 17. Jackson Topine
Broncos: 1. Tristan Sailor 2. Corey Oates 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Herbie Farnworth 5. Selwyn Cobbo 6. Ezra Mam 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Keenan Palasia 9. Billy Walters 10. Corey Jensen 11. Brendan Piakua 12. Kurt Capewell 13. Pat Carrigan 14. Tyson Smoothy 15. Xavier Willison 16. Kobe Hetherington 17. Martin Tapau
Sea Eagles vs Cowboys
In our second game of Super Saturday, we see the Sea Eagles hosting the Cowboys. The Sea Eagles picked up a crucial 2 point win last time out while the Cowboys demolished the Tigers 74-0, but they have both since had a bye. The Sea Eagles sit in 10th spot, just 1 point behind 8th place, yet it will be a tall ask without Tom Trbojevic. The Cowboys have been on fire lately, despite their slow start to the season, winning 7 of their last 10 to storm up to 9th spot.
While the Cowboys do have a number of players playing Origin this week, there is no doubt in my mind they will back up given how close they are to the top 8. I think the Cowboys are the far better side here and should get it done relatively comfortably.
| Bookmaker | Daniel’s Tip | Odds |
| Halftime/Fulltime Double – Cowboys/Cowboys | $2.25 |
| Cowboys -3.5 | $1.87 |
| Cowboys -1.5 First Half | $1.77 |
Predicted Squads
Sea Eagles: 1. Reuben Garrick 2. Jason Saab 3. Tolutau Koula 4. Morgan Harper 5. Christian Tuipulotu 6. Josh Schuster 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Taniela Paseka 9. Lachlan Croker 10. Toafofoa Sipley 11. Haumole Olakau’atu 12. Ethan Bullemor 13. Jake Trbojevic 14. Ben Trbojevic 15. Josh Aloiai 16. Aaron Woods 17. Sean Keppie
Cowboys: 1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Murray Taulagi 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Peta Hiku 5. Semi Valemei 6. Tom Dearden 7. Chad Townsend 8. Reuben Cotter 9. Reece Robson 10. Coen Hess 11. Luciano Leilua 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Jason Taumalolo 14. Jake Granville 15. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki 16. Griffin Neame 17. Jordan Mclean
Roosters vs Storm
Wrapping up Super Saturday we have the Roosters facing the Storm. Both sides are coming off the bye and lost their last game, with the Storm losing to the Panthers while the Roosters lost to the Sea Eagles. This would normally be a clash of the titans, 2 heavyweights of the competition going at it, but sadly for the Roosters, it hasn’t gone that way. While the Roosters have suffered from injuries this season, it is no excuse for them sitting in 13th spot, with the 2nd worst attack in the competition.
The Storm on the other hand sit in 4th spot and should be relatively close to full strength. Given the game is on Saturday Night, it is likely Cameron Munster and Harry Grant both back up. This season has shown us that the Storm are a far better outfit than the Roosters and I can see very few reasons why this week would be any different.
| Bookmaker | Daniel’s Tip | Odds |
| Storm to win | $1.55 |
| Storm -4.5 | $1.87 |
| Storm -2.5 first half | $2.02 |
Predicted Squads
Roosters: 1. Jamed Tedesco 2. Joseph Suaalii 3. Billy Smith 4. Joey Manu 5. Daniel Tupou 6. Luke Keary 7. Sandon Smith 8. Jared Warea-Hargreaves 9. Jake Turpin 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Nat Butcher 12. Egan Butcher 13. Victory Radley 14. Drew Hutchison 15. Nathan Brown 16. Naufahu Whyte 17. Terrell May
Storm: 1. Nick Meaney 2. Will Warbrick 3. Reimis Smith 4. Justin Olam 5. Xavier Coates 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Tariq Sims 9. Harry Grant 10. Christian Welch 11. Trent Loiero 12. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 13. Josh King 14. Bronson Garlick 15. Aaron Pene 16. Alec Mcdonald 17. Tom Eisenhuth
Warriors vs Sharks
Kicking off a 3 game Sunday Ticket we have the Warriors hosting the Sharks. Both sides will be high in confidence after winning comfortably last week. Just 1 win separates this side, as the Sharks sit in 3rd place and the Warriors in 6th spot. This one should be a great game as both sides love to play expansive footy, not afraid to shift the ball on their own line and constantly looking to attack.
The Sharks come into this one riding a 3-game win streak and have scored the most points in the competition. Both sides are completely unaffected by Origin, making this one undoubtedly the game of the round. While the Sharks are probably the better team, the New Zealand home ground makes this one an even contest. I can see this one being a high scoring, close game.
| Bookmaker | Daniel’s Tip | Odds |
| Either team by 6 or less | $2.70 |
| Warriors +1.5 | $1.87 |
| Either team by 1-12 | $1.70 |
Predicted Squads
Warriors: 1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 3. Rocco Berry 4. Adam Pompey 5. Marcelo Montoya 6. Luke Metcalf 7. Shaun Johnson 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Wayde Egan 10. Bunty Afoa 11. Jackson Ford 12. Mitch Barnett 13. Tohu Harris 14. Bayley Sironen 15. Josh Curran 16. Freddy Lussick 17. Tom Ale
Sharks: 1. William Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 3. Jesse Ramien 4. Siosifa Talakai 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Matt Moylan 7. Nicho Hynes 8. Oregon Kaufusi 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Toby Rudolf 11. Briton Nikora 12. Teig Wilton 13. Cameron Mcinnes 14. Connor Tracey 15. Wade Graham 16. Jack Williams 17. Tom Hazelton
Dolphins vs Panthers
Our second game on Sunday sees the Dolphins hosting the Panthers. The Dolphins made a 2nd half comeback to edge the Titans last week, while the Panthers had the bye. The big question is who is fit for the Panthers? There is news that Nathan Cleary will return from a hamstring injury this week and given their 4-day layoff, I expect all Origin stars to backup. The Panthers have an unrivalled ability to win games even when down on troops and that has been a driving factor in their success over the last 3 seasons. The Dolphins will hopefully welcome back Kaufusi and Marshall-King from injuries, big additions if they are named.
While the Panthers do sit first, they are just 2 points ahead of 5th spot. With a top 4 finish so crucial, I expect the Panthers to play all their stars. If Cleary and co are named, the Panthers should cover the line and if Cleary is not named, I’d still except them to win, but the 1-12 is more likely a better value play. Either way I can’t see the Dolphins scoring many points, as this Panthers side have held teams to an average of 12.75 points per game.
| Bookmaker | Daniel’s Tip | Odds |
| Dolphins to score 3+ tries - No | $1.98 |
| Panthers -13.5 | $1.87 |
| Panthers to win both halves | $1.85 |
Predicted Squads
Dolphins: 1. Kodi Nikorima 2. Jamayne Isaako 3. Euan Aitken 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 5. Tesi Niu 6. Isaiya Katoa 7. Sean O’Sullivan 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Jeremy Marshall-King 10. Herman Ese’ese 11. Kenny Bromwich 12. Felise Kaufusi 13. Ray Stone 14. Anthony Milford 15. Mark Nicholls 16. Josh Kerr 17. Connelly Lemuelu
Panthers: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Sunia Turuva 3. Izack Tago 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Brian To’o 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Scott Sorensen 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo 14. Soni Luke 15. Lindsay Smith 16. Spencer Leniu 17. Jaeom Salmon
Eels vs Titans
Closing out the round we have the Eels facing off against the Titans. Both sides suffered disappointing losses last week and will be desperate for a win to continue their top 8 pushes. The Eels sit in 7th spot while the Titans are just 2 points behind them, in 11th position. Both sides are impacted by Origin with the Eels having RCG, Gutherson and Moses playing, while the Titans have Brimson, Tino, Fifita and Fotuaika playing. Due to this being the last game of the round, I’d expect all of them to play.
While the Titans do have more Origin representatives, the line seems too big for me. The Titans haven’t lost by more than 4 points since round 14, where they were coming off a shorter turnaround against an inform Rabbitohs side. I think the Eels probably get this one done but it should be a close one.
| Bookmaker | Daniel’s Tip | Odds |
| Eels 1-12 | $3.00 |
| Titans +8.5 | $1.87 |
| Either team by 1-12 | $1.95 |
Predicted Squads
Eels: 1. Clint Gutherson2. Maika Sivo 3. Will Penisini 4. Bailey Simonsson 5. Sean Russell 6. Daejarn Asi 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Brendan Hands 10. Junior Paulo 11. Bryce Cartwright 12. Shaun Lane 13. J’maine Hopgood 14. Joe Ofahengaue 15. Ofahiki Ogden 16. Ryan Matterson 17. Makahesi Makatoa
Titans: 1. AJ Brimson 2. Alofiano Khan-Pereira 3. Brian Kelly 4. Aaron Schoupp 5. Phillip Sami 6. Kieran Foran 7. Tanah Boyd 8. Moeaki Fotuaika 9. Sam Verills 10. Tino Fa'asuamaleaui 11. David Fifita 12. Joe Stimson 13. Isaac Liu 14. Jayden Campbell 15. Iszac Fa’asuamaleaui 16. Chris Randall 17. Erin Clark
