State of Origin 2023– Betting tips & Predictions
We take a deep dive into State of Origin Game 3, particularly the mass changes to the NSW side and the impact a dead rubber has on the series. We will help you find the value in game 3.
We take a deep dive into State of Origin Game 3, particularly the mass changes to the NSW side and the impact a dead rubber has on the series. We will help you find the value in game 3.
The NRL is the biggest full-season rugby league competition in the world, but come the middle of the year, the attention of the NRL-supporting public turns passionately towards the State of Origin. Pitting New South Wales against Queensland, this best of three series has origins (pardon the pun) harking back to 1982, and in the more than 40 years since has developed a reputation as one of the more fiercely contested collection of games in world sport.
The passion which surrounds this series is unrivalled, with NRL teammates at times pitted against one another in the battle for state supremacy. There is no love lost between Australia’s two biggest rugby states, and both from a supporter perspective and on the field, that is plain to see.
With only three games a year and so much interest in these games, the State of Origin is unsurprisingly a major focus for betting sites. There are a huge number of markets to choose from with most bookies, and when the series roll around, we at MyBettingAustralia have plenty of input of our own. Below, we talk you through everything to do with our State of Origin tips, including how we come up with them, and how you can benefit from them.
With only three State of Origin games taking place every year, it’s easy enough to provide State of Origin predictions for every single game. Plus, so few games means that there is plenty of scope for our expert tipsters to devote a whole lot of attention to them, so you can be sure that there has been shortage of research going on behind the scenes.
Our State of Origin tips are also accompanied by some in-depth analysis, so you can get a deeper look into the thinking that is leading to the State of Origin betting tips. We will also provide details about the chosen squads, with the articles concluding with three different State of Origin expert tips, and where you can get some of the best odds on those markets.
Any rugby league fan worth their salt follows the State of Origin with at times alarming vigour once it rolls around – the kind that is almost frightening to non-sports fans. To us, however, this is completely normal. State of Origin is more than just a game – it’s a battle for supremacy which transcends the field itself.
Our expert tipsters have been following rugby league and by extension, the State of Origin, since they were in their nappies. Clearly they have not been betting on it for quite as long, but once a trip to the TAB was a legal possibility, they began to be able to put those years of knowledge to the test.
Winning money on any sport through betting is not easy, and this is particularly the case with the State of Origin. With only three games and such incredible interest in each and every one of them, NRL betting sites can put plenty of resources into developing the tightest odds possible for every market. But that does not mean it’s impossible to find an edge.
We scour all sorts of different data to come up with our NRL State of Origin tips. We take a look at recent history between the two teams, at which players are available, and of course, where it is being played, with home ground advantage historically playing a massive role in this series – not surprising given the unbridled passion of the home fans. This is a major reason why State of Origin Game 1 predictions, State of Origin Game 2 predictions and State of Origin Game 3 predictions will vary a lot, though there are plenty of other factors that go into this variance too – more on these below.
As mentioned above, there are plenty of different factors that go into our State of Origin tipping. Below, we go into some detail about the most significant of them.
Home ground advantage is significant in a lot of sports, but when you have over 50,000 fans who are passionate to say the least and generally supporting the same team, it’s easy to see why it plays such a major role in the State of Origin series.
For example, the Maroons won 13 of 17 games in the capital of their home state of Queensland between 2010 and 2023, and the winning percentage was even more stark in series deciders, which clearly would influence our State of Origin Game 3 betting tips. The home ground performance of New South Wales was not nearly as dominant, but though you might think that lack of a trend makes it harder to bet with conviction, it does help to recognise that Brisbane typically have a better chance away than New South Wales do – at least in recent years.
Recent results have historically proven to be pretty relevant when it comes to State of Origin. Both Queensland and New South Wales have had periods of dominance in this series, and following that trend would have proven fruitful if you’d been punting on it through that time.
New South Wales were dominant for over a decade in the ‘90s and ‘00s, losing just three out of 14 series between 1992 and 2005. But once that streak ended, a new, even more stark one began. Queensland would go on to win a whopping eight series in a row from 2006 to 2013, and after New South Wales finally won back the shield in 2014, Queensland won the next three in succession.
Given it is a best of three series, you can probably do the maths and figure out that at times, there are games that are not all that important in the State of Origin. Titled dead rubbers, these are what all neutral fans want to avoid, and what passionate New South Wales and Queensland fans either love or loathe.
If a team wins the first two games then clearly it renders the third of them irrelevant, at least in terms of the winner of the shield. Of course, it is not entirely irrelevant – avoiding a clean sweep is a pretty high priority for both of these teams, but it’s safe to say that a Game 3 with only that on the line does not have quite the same level of venom as a series decider.
But sometimes, a game being a dead rubber can actually provide some fodder for bettors. 3-0 results have historically been unbelievably rare in the State of Origin; in fact, between 2001 and 2024 it happened on just a solitary occasion, with the other 23 being decided 2-1. A lot of those were tied at 1-1 heading into the final game, but nine of them were decided after two games. That means that the team which had already been beaten two times in a row, and who it’s safe to say was probably the inferior side, went on to win the ‘dead rubber’ Game 3 eight times out of nine. That is a pretty notable stat, and indicates why we factor in the relevance of a game so much when developing our State of Origin tips.
This is another big one, and something that any bettor worth their salt will place plenty of emphasis on, regardless of what it is that they are betting on. When it comes to the State of Origin, players will do whatever they can to be available, but with these games coming in the middle of the NRL season there are generally multiple players who would otherwise get a guernsey for their respective state who are unable to play, either through injury or suspension.
Players injured during the NRL season can have an impact on our State of Origin Game 1 tips, while State of Origin Game 2 tips and State of Origin Game 3 tips can also be influenced by players absent who were available earlier in the series. Given that these are the best of the best from their respective states and there is only one team for every single player from each of these two states, if one player is unavailable they are still going to replaced by someone who is pretty damn good, but the absence of a key star will nonetheless be felt, and needs to be considered in any State of Origin predictions.
The State of Origin series is a massive event in the world of rugby league and sport moreover, so it’s unsurprising that betting on it is pretty popular. With such a massive range of different betting sites, the landscape has become incredibly competitive for bookmakers, and with not all that much separating a lot of them – particularly new betting sites – they are all hunting for a way to get as many customers as possible to bet with them, rather than their virtually identical competitor.
One of the primary ways that betting sites do this is through promotions. With a good promotion, a betting site can attract customers old and new, and even if they lose money on the promotion itself, once they get punters betting with them it can pay dividends.
It follows that betting sites have plenty to gain by providing some good State of Origin promotions, and subsequently – ideally for them – punters will head to their site and also bet on other State of Origin markets.
Due to Australian rules and regulations, you can’t see what promotions a particular betting site is offering unless you have an account with them and are logged in, so you won’t be able to simply scour all the sites when the State of Origin comes around to find the best promotion – unless, of course, you have an account with them.
The State of Origin promotions that are offered are hugely varied. While we can’t speak to exactly what will be on offer the next time it comes around, examples of some State of Origin promotions that have been available at various betting sites in the past include early payouts if the team you backed in a head to head market is leading by a certain amount at half-time, or money back in bonus bets if you place a multi and just one leg fails.
State of Origin promotions can be a good way to boost your chances of getting up on this famous series, and while they are not all made equal, there are plenty of them that are well worth checking out.
Live streaming has become increasingly common on betting sites, though what is offered varies widely from one bookmaker to another. A lot of them, particularly new betting sites, won’t have any live streaming available because they simply cannot afford to pay for the rights.
Other betting sites might have just a handful of things available. Most often, this will be racing, with live streaming of Sky Racing a relatively common thing for bookmakers to offer.
With some betting sites, however, you will find much more than that. Generally it’s the bigger, global betting giants that will have the best range of live streaming available – clearly getting the broadcast rights to stream things cost money, and clearly the bigger the league, the more expensive the rights. But for some big sites, that is no barrier, so some sites will even have major leagues like NBA available to stream – check out our Bet365 review for an example.
Unfortunately, when it comes to State of Origin, there are some difficulties associated with live streaming. All three State of Origin games every year are broadcast live on free-to-air, which generally means that you won’t be able to find them live streaming on betting sites.
You can, however, still stream the game live – just not on any betting sites or betting apps. The broadcast rights for State of Origin are with Channel 9 through until 2027, which means that up until then you can stream the games live on Nine’s streaming service, which is known as 9Now.
Our State of Origin predictions are the result of detailed analysis from our expert tipsters, so we think that they generally make a lot of sense. Of course, that does not mean that they are always right, but what we can guarantee is that there is always plenty of logic behind them.
If you’re not particularly familiar with the State of Origin, or betting more broadly, then you can take a look at our State of Origin tips and just bet with them directly – we will provide three for each game of the series. Alternatively, use it to inform your own bets – see if our conclusions match yours, or alternatively, if they might give you pause to have a bit of a rethink.
In every sport, elements of history are worth considering and others are not at all when it comes to betting. For the State of Origin, however, there is no denying that history plays a pretty key role.
It’s quite easy to source historical data for State of Origin simply because there are not all that many games. The things that we will consider from a historical perspective when it comes to creating State of Origin tips and predictions include things like recent series results, as well as recent results at a particular ground.
For example, harking way back to 2010 up until 2024, Brisbane had won a huge 14 of the last 17 State of Origin games which had taken place in Brisbane. Unfortunately, backing that trend proved erroneous that time around as New South Wales caused an upset in Game 3 of 2024 in Brisbane, but by and large that was a trend which had been pretty reliable.
Individual players can also demonstrate trends which can be valuable to know if you are betting on player props. Dane Gagai, for example, was for years a try-scoring machine in these games. He scored a try in his solitary game in 2015, four of them in three games the next year, and two more in each of the next three years. Valentine Holmes, too, has failed to score at least once in just two of his seven State of Origin series at the time of writing, scoring 13 in 18 games in that time.
State of Origin betting is not limited to simply betting on the three individual games, either. There are obviously fewer futures options in this series given it only consists of three games, but you can bet on the outright winner of the series with virtually every betting site that offers odds on the series.
With some bookmakers, you can also bet on player futures, too. Such markets include top tryscorer, top points scorer, the Brad Fittler Medal for New South Wales’ best player, and the Wally Lewis Medal for Queensland’s best player.
Below are some of the most frequently asked questions about the State of Origin.
The State of Origin has been broadcast on Channel 9 for some time, with the most recent agreement extending that contract from 2023 until 2027. These are exclusive live broadcast rights, which means that you won’t find a broadcast of the three games on another channel.
We formulate our State of Origin predictions on the back of plenty of research. There are a huge number of different factors that we consider, which we have discussed in greater detail above, so check that out to find out more. Essentially though, we will consider things like player availability, match situation (is it a dead rubber, for example?), where the game is being played, and recent history between the two teams.
The State of Origin is one of the most fiercely contested competitions in rugby league, and indeed sport moreover. In the middle of the NRL season, neighbouring passionate rugby league states, New South Wales and Queensland, match up against one another in a best of three series for the shield and a whole lot of bragging rights.
As the name suggests, the players involved play for their own state – their state of origin. This means that the best players from the NRL are snapped up by their state teams, sometimes pitting NRL teammates against one another, and bringing together the best of the best when it comes to rugby league for a series with an unrivalled level of passion.
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